[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 060328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060328
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-060530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1624
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 PM CST Mon Nov 05 2018

Areas affected...Northern Louisiana...Portions of central/northern
Mississippi...portions of western/middle Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 422...423...

Valid 060328Z - 060530Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 422, 423 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for a few tornadoes will continue for the next
few hours in WW 422 and WW 423. The greatest risk will exist in
northern portions of Mississippi where the strongest forcing and
most favorable low-level wind fields will overlap. Farther south,
relative tornado risk will be lower. A new watch may be necessary
across parts of Middle Tennessee, northern Alabama, and northeast
Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms within Tornado Watch 422 southern
portions of Tornado Watch 423 have become more linearly organized
over the past hour or two. The line of storms in northern
Mississippi/western Tennessee is more organized/mature due to the
stronger forcing for ascent relative to locations to the
south/southwest. The tornado threat will be maximized in this area
given the overlap of mid-level ascent and a stout 850 mb jet
enlarging low-level hodographs for a few more hours. However, modest
buoyancy profiles and storm mode will mitigate this risk to a
degree.

To the south, within Tornado Watch 422, storms have struggled to
mature farther away from the better forcing to the north. However,
continued theta-e advection into central Mississippi has maintained
better instability. Surface observations have registered slight
increases in temperature over the last hour. An expected modest
increase in the low-level jet may help to better organize storms as
they move into the region. Given dewpoints in the low 70s, at least
some tornado threat will exist through about 08Z. Beyond that time
frame, as the trough lifts to the northeast, storms over central
Mississippi will generally weaken.

..Wendt.. 11/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   31699160 31549207 31549307 31579382 31819380 32409278
            32979191 33229113 33889062 34249029 34928953 35078932
            35348897 36078805 36318723 36038663 35428691 34458813
            33758919 33308974 32149098 31699160

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