[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 311930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311929
KYZ000-TNZ000-312100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0590
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Areas affected...south-central Kentucky into Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 311929Z - 312100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered strong storms will continue through
the afternoon. A few strong wind gusts are possible with these
storms, but the overall threat will remain marginal the remainder of
the afternoon and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms will continue through the
afternoon in a very moist and unstable environment. Temperatures
have warmed into the mid 80s to low 90s F across the region with
dewpoints generally in the low 70s F. As a result, MLCAPE values
near 2000 J/kg were noted. Deep layer shear and midlevel lapse rates
are lackluster and this will limit longevity/organization, but DCAPE
values are approaching 1500 J/kg and some strong wind gusts will
continue to be possible through the remainder of the afternoon.
Given the lack of a more organized threat, a watch is not expected
at this time. While severe threat in the short term is expected to
remain marginal, some hi-res guidance suggests a more organized
bowing line may migrate into parts of Middle Tennessee later
tonight, mainly after 00z.

..Leitman/Hart.. 05/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   37218647 37318630 37378594 37408554 37358509 37288486
            37188470 37028466 36648486 35778541 35218584 35098670
            35158715 35268757 35418774 35568776 35798773 36188747
            36748699 37218647
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