[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 062001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062000
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun May 06 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southern MO...northern
AR...western/middle TN...and western KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 062000Z - 062230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and some hail will be possible
with thunderstorms through the early evening. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Lift associated with a compact northwesterly
upper-level jet and related weak mid-level shortwave trough over the
Ozarks has encouraged convection to develop along the MO/AR border
and into western KY as of 20Z. Strong diurnal heating ahead of this
activity has steepened low-level lapse rates, with RAP forecast
soundings indicating a very well-mixed boundary layer likely exists
up to around 750-700 mb. Downdrafts should be enhanced by this
well-mixed low-level environment, and MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg will
likely support thunderstorms through the early evening. Recent VWP
from the KSGF radar shows a veering and modestly strengthening wind
profile in the 1-6 km layer, with around 30-35 kt of resultant
effective bulk shear supporting at least some potential for updraft
organization, mainly across southern MO into northern AR. Multicell
clusters should be the predominant storm mode, and they will pose an
isolated strong/gusty wind and perhaps marginally severe hail
threat. Mid-level flow weakens with eastward extent into
western/middle TN and western KY per RAP Mesoanalysis, which
suggests any severe threat across this region will likely remain
quite marginal/isolated.

..Gleason/Grams.. 05/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36339455 36799460 37299439 37309390 37139300 36909193
            36859052 36908919 36948870 37128801 37198734 37098691
            36718667 36178678 35618796 35188939 35009030 35019143
            35599357 35849414 36339455
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