[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Sat May 5 14:28:01 CDT 2018

ACUS11 KWNS 051927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051927
WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-052100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sat May 05 2018

Areas affected...Eastern TN to Southern WV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051927Z - 052100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms are expected from portions of eastern
TN to southern WV. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. Low
severe probabilities will be added to 20z outlook to account for
these threats.

DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer heating has
developed from eastern TN into southeast KY. Surface temperatures
have warmed into the mid 70s across this region ahead of a very
moist plume characterized by scattered convection and an extensive
rain shield. Within this moist plume there appears to be a weak
embedded MCV over Middle TN that is tracking slowly northeast. This
feature may be partly responsible for recent increase in convection
immediately downstream in the Putnam/White County TN region. While
buoyancy is not particularly strong there appears to be sufficient
instability, given the observed shear, for robust updrafts through
the late afternoon hours. Marginally severe hail and gusty winds are
the primary threats.

..Darrow/Grams.. 05/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36538537 38388193 38058069 37198100 36068272 35528469
            36538537
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