[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271842
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-272015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0907
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Areas affected...Far Northeast Arkansas...Far Southeast
Missouri...Far Southern Illinois...Far Southwest Kentucky...and
Western Tennessee.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 271842Z - 272015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong storms are expected this afternoon with damaging
winds as the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Clear skies has led to robust surface heating across
much of the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Temperatures have risen into the
low 90s with mid to upper 70s dewpoints. This has yielded a very
unstable environment with SBCAPE of 4000 to 5000 J/kg. Modifying the
12Z LZK RAOB for current surface conditions shows the capping
inversion has now eroded. This likely explains the renewed storm
development in northwest Tennessee over the past hour. Additional
storms are possible along and ahead of the remnants of the morning
convection currently in southeast Missouri. Westerly winds around 30
knots at 1 km above the surface via the KHPX and KOHX VWP may
support a wind damage threat, but the measured 25 to 30 knots of 0
to 6 km shear will limit the overall severe threat despite robust
instability. Convective trends will be monitored through the
afternoon to assess the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Bentley.. 06/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   37248916 37228851 37178807 36998776 36638731 36108707
            35598690 35288692 35108711 35098806 35088919 35098999
            35139035 35379087 35979118 36259112 36599083 37248916
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