[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271829
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-272100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0906
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Areas affected...Southern Kentucky...Tennessee...Northern
Georgia...Western South Carolina...Western North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 271829Z - 272100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A wind damage and hail threat is expected to develop over
the next couple of hours from middle Tennessee eastward into the
western Carolinas. A weather watch may need to be considered for the
area this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery across the southern Appalachian
mountains has shown a gradual increase in convective coverage.
Multiple multicell clusters are ongoing along a gradient of
instability from southern Kentucky east-southeastward into the
western Carolinas. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values along this
corridor from 1000 to 2500 J/Kg. The latest WSR-88D VWP from
Morristown, Tennessee shows a unidirectional wind profile with 0-6
km shear near 25 kt. This will support organized multicells in the
form of short bowing line segments. As low-level lapse rates
continue to steepen, wind damage will become possible along the
leading edge of these short line segments. Hail may also accompany
the stronger cores as well.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 06/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...
HUN...

LAT...LON   34278363 34148248 34208130 34578037 35078008 35458021
            35728047 35898091 35848144 35848220 35988309 36148377
            36718493 37258583 37238640 36768671 35978660 35288591
            34868520 34278363
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