[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 210638
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210638
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-210745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

Areas affected...TN...far northeast AR...northern MS...northern
AL...and northern GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 294...295...

Valid 210638Z - 210745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 294, 295 continues.

SUMMARY...New WWs will be coordinated with WFOs across Tennessee,
northeast AR, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama and northern
Georgia to replace Tornado Watches 294 and 295.

DISCUSSION...A reservoir of very strong instability remains in place
across western into middle TN to part of northern MS and northern AL
with MUCAPE exceeding 3500 J/kg.  Area VWP data per WSR-88Ds
indicated 30-kt west-southwesterly low-level winds extended from
Memphis to middle TN providing low-level ascent atop an
outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone, which extended from southern KY
to northern GA.  Thunderstorms will continue to develop along and
east of this boundary through the overnight with the available
CAPE/shear parameter space favoring a continued severe-weather
threat.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat,
as the exit region of a 60-65-kt northwesterly 500-mb jet spreads
southeast into the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and toward the
southern Appalachians overnight.  Low-level SRH will remain
sufficient to not rule out a tornado.

..Peters/Edwards.. 07/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   36288998 37228654 36758517 36408394 35118386 34308441
            33968658 33678862 33979082 34239113 35229061 36288998
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