[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 210321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210320
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-210515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Areas affected...much of Kentucky...Tennessee...Arkansas...northern
Mississippi and Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 294...

Valid 210320Z - 210515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 294 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of severe weather continues across a large area
from AR to the OH river with multiple potential corridors of severe.

DISCUSSION...A strongly unstable and sheared air mass currently
extends from AR to KY, and southward into MS and northern AL. The
synoptic setup continues to be favorable tonight for continued
development with cooling aloft and a jet max diving southeast out of
MO.

Currently, severe storms extend from the front along the OH river
southward across eastern KY and TN where supercells were noted on
radar. These storms are located near the eastern extent of the most
unstable air, but are being supported by west/southwest low-level
winds. Some of these cells may have tornado potential, along with
large hail and damaging winds. The storms to the north along the OH
river are more linear in mode, and clearly contain damaging wind
potential. This line could potentially exhibit QLCS structure at
times.

To the west, a rapid increase of storms has occurred across central
AR, and this cluster will likely persist into MS with mainly a
damaging wind and hail threat. A tornado cannot be ruled out
embedded within this line.

Meanwhile, middle and western TN has remained free of storms except
for a few showers earlier this evening that eventually turned into
supercells across eastern TN. The environment over middle TN
continues to be quite favorable, conditionally, for supercells,
including the threat of tornadoes. However, there is currently
little focus to initiate storms. That said, cooling aloft persists
and there is little if any CIN. An earlier attempt at a storm was
seen recently across southern middle TN, suggesting other attempts
could follow this evening. Therefore, the area will remain under a
tornado watch.

..Jewell.. 07/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34848607 34428656 34308756 34038865 33338942 33189020
            33709208 34419268 35019266 35269192 35659108 36159043
            36818985 37348979 37838955 38088895 38198654 38218572
            38068524 37638503 37008508 36668517 34848607
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