[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 272212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272211
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-272315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0874
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Areas affected...far southeastern WV...western and southwestern
VA...eastern TN...and northwest NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 272211Z - 272315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail/damaging gusts
will likely move into the area from the west early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms generally to the west of the spine of the Appalachians
but this activity is forecast to move east of the the existing
severe thunderstorm watches early this evening.  Surface
temperatures into the upper 70s-lower 80s degrees F and dewpoints in
the 62-66 degrees F range ---resulting in moderate buoyancy (1500
J/kg MLCAPE).  Effective shear more than adequate for storm
organization (35-40 kt) will facilitate both severe multicell and
supercell structures with the stronger storms.  Large hail and
damaging gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the more intense cores.

..Smith/Guyer.. 05/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...

LAT...LON   36078506 36528393 37268156 37918067 37937971 36947924
            36277949 35658108 35608335 35538414 36078506
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