[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Wed May 24 11:48:02 CDT 2017

ACUS11 KWNS 241647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241647
TNZ000-KYZ000-241745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0828
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Areas affected...Central/eastern Tennessee into south-central and
southeastern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 241647Z - 241745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An uptick in convection has been noted over the past hour
or so.  A tornado watch will likely be coordinated soon for the
discussion area.

DISCUSSION...Convection has increased over Middle Tennessee in the
past hour or so, with one supercell exhibiting increasing rotation
and attendant hail/wind/tornado threat over Trousdale and Smith
Counties.  Shear profiles are supportive of storm organization and
occasional rotation in the region, and storms interacting near a
remnant outflow boundary over south-central Kentucky and
northeastern Tennessee may briefly exhibit an increase in severe
potential as storms move roughly perpendicular to it.  The
environment is characterized by weak to moderate instability
(500-1250 J/kg MUCAPE), and this instability should increase with
time owing to persistent low-level warm advection and ongoing
insolation across the region.  Tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind
gusts are possible with organized activity, and a tornado watch will
likely be coordinated within the hour for affected areas.

..Cook/Kerr.. 05/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36448642 36798625 37138597 37568537 37608489 37538451
            37338430 37058414 36898404 36058389 35508390 35208455
            35038513 35078574 35498623 35858640 36448642
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/nashwxnet