[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151636
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-151830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Areas affected...Portions of south-central Kentucky...Middle
Tennessee...northwest Alabama and northern/central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 151636Z - 151830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
through this afternoon with a risk for damaging winds and large
hail.  Trends will be monitored for the possibility of a severe
thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were located along a persistent outflow
boundary from northwest Mississippi northeast into Middle
Tennessee/south-central Kentucky at of 1630z. This boundary, and
associated thunderstorm activity, will continue to move
south/southeast into a moist and increasingly unstable air mass
characterized by moderate/strong surface-based buoyancy but modest
deep-layer shear. Latest visible satellite imagery shows increasing
surface-based instability and towering cumulus both along and in
advance of the boundary-associated storms.  An increase in storm
coverage and intensity is expected over the next few hours with a
primary risk for damaging winds due to water loading of updrafts.
The degree of instability suggests that isolated instances of large
hail will also be possible.  Despite the weak vertical shear and
overall slow storm motions, some potential exists for storm outflows
to congeal with time, resulting in more concentrated corridors of
damaging wind potential.

Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed if confidence increases in the
coverage of severe wind/hail risk.

..Bunting/Hart.. 06/15/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34259059 35198833 36058710 36508657 36858597 36648558
            35748560 34458631 34078671 33318766 32878865 32758966
            32819025 33039077 33459086 33839106 34259059
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