[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141717
NCZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-141945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

Areas affected...Portions of VA/NC/SC/TN/GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 141717Z - 141945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase into the afternoon
hours, with the risk for a few strong storms capable of locally
damaging wind gusts. Convection will lack organization, and Watch
issuance will not be needed.

DISCUSSION...A broad area of partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies is
permitting sufficient insolation amid a favorably moist boundary
layer -- e.g. surface dewpoints in the middle 60s to lower 70s --
for increasing thunderstorm potential this afternoon. This will
occur over a broad region from the central and southern Appalachians
eastward across the Piedmont to the coastal plain where capping is
minimal.

Initial storm development may tend to be focused in the following
regimes:
(1) Diurnally enhanced orographic ascent over the higher terrain /
Appalachians,
(2) An axis of weak convergence across north-central VA,
(3) Ascent preceding a weak, eastward-moving MCV across southeast
VA,
(4) A west-east frontal zone from northeast GA through northern SC
into southeast NC where cumulus fields are swelling, and
(5) Along sea-breeze boundaries closer to the coast.

Scattered thunderstorm coverage is anticipated, with storms slowly
moving southward to eastward into the early evening hours. However,
water vapor imagery does not depict any particularly salient
midlevel perturbations enhancing deep ascent, though slightly
cyclonic flow aloft and a related modestly tightened midlevel height
gradient are supporting around 10-15 kt of 500-mb flow. This may be
sufficient for a few loosely organized multicell clusters to evolve
as cells merge, though the character of convection should be lacking
any appreciable organization.

Nevertheless, steepening low-level lapse rates will contribute to a
few substantively robust convective cores, with downdrafts enhanced
by water-loading processes associated with PW around 1.50-1.75
inches. Isolated damaging wind gusts could accompany the most
intense convection through the afternoon and into the early evening,
before nocturnal gains in boundary-layer static stability occur.

..Cohen/Hart.. 06/14/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...
GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON   32948302 33388468 34498542 35638519 36098435 36558261
            37368057 38557915 38807750 37037622 35567632 34107794
            32778028 32948302
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