[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 242328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242328
KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-250030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0207
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Areas affected...Portions of middle/eastern Tennessee and
central/eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 242328Z - 250030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms should continue to organize in broken
bands across central Kentucky this evening. Storms are also expected
to develop southward into middle Tennessee. As they organize and
push east, an increasing threat for severe wind gusts should
materialize. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is most likely
across Kentucky in the near term.

DISCUSSION...Approaching mid-level ascent and related
moistening/cooling aloft will gradually weaken convective inhibition
over the region this evening, with a related uptick in convective
coverage expected. Storms have already begun to organize across
parts of the Ohio Valley since approximately 22Z, and this trend
should persist. Furthermore, cells may continue to develop farther
south into middle Tennessee this evening.

As storms push eastward, they will likely evolve into small
bands/bowing segments, aided by relatively uni-directional
southwesterly flow in the low/mid levels. Additionally, steep
low-level lapse rates will foster ample evaporative cooling in
stronger downdrafts. As such, stronger storms will be capable of
occasional severe-wind gusts this evening.

..Picca/Guyer.. 02/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   38568603 38888537 38808378 38048313 35888436 35458578
            35378717 36048771 37888653 38568603
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