[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 100642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100642
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-100815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ARKANSAS...WRN TENNESSEE...NW MISSISSIPPI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 157...158...

VALID 100642Z - 100815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 157...158...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CONTINUING LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS /STRONGEST OF
WHICH HAVE BEEN MEASURED APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS/ ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THE NEED FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...EMBEDDED WITHIN A 40 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER
MEAN FLOW FIELD...LINGERING SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  LIGHTNING TRENDS AND MRMS
CAPPI DATA HAVE INDICATED A DISTINCT WEAKENING TREND TO THE STRONGER
CONVECTION... AND LITTLE IS EVIDENT TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.  IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY IS STILL ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ROOTED WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONGLOMERATE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...APPEARS LIKELY TO DIMINISH BY 08-09Z...IF NOT
BEFORE...AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES EAST OF JACKSON TN/OXFORD AND
GREENWOOD MS LINE.

..KERR.. 05/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33729198 33759155 34249084 34539053 34989009 35419000
            35859005 36068996 36468746 34668939 33199076 32789253
            33729198

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