[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101149
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-101345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MISSOURI INTO SRN ILLINOIS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101149Z - 101345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IN THE NEAR TERM...OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
WITH CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BETWEEN
CAPE GIRARDEAU AND ST. LOUIS.  IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT A WATCH WILL
BE NEEDED THROUGH MIDDAY.

DISCUSSION...DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR NEAR AN ASSOCIATED 40-50 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC SPEED
MAXIMUM...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
NOW APPROACHING THE FARMINGTON MO AREA.  ADDITIONAL NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO ONGOING AROUND AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
FARMINGTON...LIKELY SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...TO THE
NORTH OF CAPE GIRARDEAU...TOWARD THE MOUNT VERNON IL AREA THROUGH
13-15Z.  AS IT DOES...POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LOW.

STORMS MAY BE MOSTLY ELEVATED ABOVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW NEAR- SURFACE
LAYER...WITH CAPE FOR EVEN THE MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS RATHER
MODEST...ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG.  THERE APPEARS LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AHEAD OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.  AND MODELS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL
WEAKENING OF THE SUPPORTING 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET
THROUGH MID MORNING.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 05/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33729198 33759155 34249084 34539053 34989009 35419000
            35859005 36068996 36468746 34668939 33199076 32789253
            33729198
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