[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 312048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312048
KYZ000-TNZ000-312215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 312048Z - 312215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK...WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE INCLUDING ISOLATED
TORNADOES...WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...LINEAR CONVECTION IN SWRN TN CURRENTLY POSES MAINLY A
DAMAGING WIND RISK AS IT PROGRESSES EWD AROUND 35-40 KT. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TN INTO NWRN AL IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE...WITH
MLCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG PER RECENT RAP MESOANALYSIS. A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PRIOR CONVECTION TO THE S OF THE MCD AREA HAS
LIMITED MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN SO FAR...AND WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS PRESENT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE PROSPECT FOR
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS LIMITED.
REGARDLESS...STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   35808791 36218769 36508726 36718702 37008693 37088661
            36928614 36518640 35268661 35028684 35028793 35808791
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