[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011900
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-012030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TN AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011900Z - 012030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS MODESTLY INCREASING
0VER THE MCD AREA...BUT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ISOLATED...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A SUB-SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A NARROW ZONE OF
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED HEATING
THE PAST FEW HOURS... AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S NOW COVERING MOST OF THE MCD AREA. HOWEVER
THE AREA IS NORTH OF THE LARGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE EML
PLUME AND BUOYANCY REMAINS LIMITED TO MLCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG.
NONETHELESS...INCREASING 850-700 MB FLOW OF 50-65 KT EVIDENT IN KHTX
VAD WINDS...AND SOME INDICATION OF MESOSCALE REAR INFLOW BEHIND A
SMALL KINK IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA...MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.

..CONIGLIO/HART.. 03/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36858465 36868414 36778378 36628364 36318365 35758373
            35378388 35168416 35078454 35028489 35058556 35028598
            35088615 35438619 36058567 36318547 36858465
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