[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011621
KYZ000-TNZ000-011745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011621Z - 011745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND
MIDDLE TN COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN POOR ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S F /AT BEST/. BROKEN CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
ALLOW FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION /A FEW HUNDRED MUCAPE/ AND STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN 0-3KM SHEAR AROUND 35-45 KT PER
REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5-7 DEG
C/KM /AS NOTED IN 12Z BNA RAOB AND REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ AND
COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SMALL HAIL. GIVEN
THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...UPDRAFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ROBUST AND SEVERE HAIL IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 03/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37748634 37918585 37958550 37928516 37788491 37638473
            37278476 36708486 36258503 35968522 35748550 35548595
            35488656 35528719 35638747 35838750 36188736 36888697
            37408673 37608652 37748634
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