[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221640
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221640
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-221845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KENTUCKY/NRN TENNESSEE INTO PARTS OF SWRN
VIRGINIA/WRN NORTH CAROLINA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221640Z - 221845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN CONCERNING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION AND ORGANIZATION
THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL AREA OF SUSTAINED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE
JACKSON KY AREA.  THIS CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY BEEN SUPPORTED BY AN
AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE.  THE STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF THIS FORCING
REMAINS UNCLEAR.  HOWEVER...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
A MOIST AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHERE CAPE NOW APPEARS AS
LARGE AS 1500-2000 J/KG.

ADDITIONAL NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INITIATING NEAR
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING WEST
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER...NEAR OWENSBORO KY.  NEAR AND
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT EMERGING FROM THE
PLAINS PROBABLY WILL CAP ANY ATTEMPTS AT STORM DEVELOPMENT.  ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY/NORTHERN TENNESSEE...INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...MODERATE TO LARGE CAPE AND WEAKER/WEAKENING
INHIBITION PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE FURTHER INCREASE AND
INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18-21Z.

ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG WEST NORTHWEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW /30-50 KT AT 500 MB/...THE GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF AN
UPSCALE GROWING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  IF/WHEN THIS OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE
OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD
POOL...ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AT LEAST
APPROACHING...IF NOT EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR/GUYER.. 06/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37718699 37388602 37198520 37038376 37118289 37298213
            36628160 35958244 36038408 36078548 36818763 37478754
            37718699
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