[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221330
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-221730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN MO...FAR SRN IL/IND...
WRN/MIDDLE TN...AND MUCH OF KY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 221330Z - 221730Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP/CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR WILL BE COMMON.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AS OF 1330Z SHOWS A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN MO ENEWD INTO PORTIONS
OF WRN/MIDDLE TN AND MUCH OF KY. SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY
FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HAVE ALSO COOLED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS HAS SUPPORTED A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE MCD AREA. ACROSS PARTS OF
MIDDLE TN...THE TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR...AS THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM KBNA SHOWED A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
PROFILE ALONG THE 0 DEG C ISOTHERM FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 780 MB. AS
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID SOUTH PIVOTS NEWD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...A DEFORMATION ZONE OF HEAVY SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP/CONTINUE...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR
COMMON. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
MCD AREA THROUGH 18Z AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING MOVE NEWD.

..GLEASON.. 01/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35798799 35808891 36198923 36658957 37198926 37638866
            37978734 38318556 38438323 38238272 37748243 37428244
            36748322 36388485 36018668 35798799
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