[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 012221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012220
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-020015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012220Z - 020015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND RISK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW FROM A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SRN KY HAS
SURGED SWD AND INTERACTED WITH A SECOND BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES. THE AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM WILL LIKELY REMAIN HOT/MOIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH 22Z RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE RANGES FROM
1500-2500 J/KG ALONG AND S OF ONGOING CONVECTION. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
BEING MODESTLY ENHANCED BY A SMALL PERTURBATION APPROACHING THE MID
SOUTH THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE ERN
CONUS. LATEST VWP/S FROM KNQA AND KOHX SHOW 20-30 KT OF WLY/NWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE SEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE LACK OF EVEN STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS DEVELOPING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

..GLEASON/PETERS.. 08/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35648965 36448886 36468753 36428561 35328540 34748610
            34608767 34858918 35648965
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