[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 051929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051928
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-052200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...NE AR...FAR SRN IL...TN AND KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 051928Z - 052200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY
NOT BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF VERY MOIST AIR
EXTENDING FROM NERN LA NNEWD ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO SE MO AND WRN
KY. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 DEGREES F
AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE
ACCORDING TO MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
STEEPENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG OUTFLOW
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PULSE STORMS AND MULTICELL
LINE-SEGMENTS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE STORMS
NON-SEVERE.

..BROYLES/HART.. 08/05/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35648730 35828626 36478539 37388496 37988530 38288609
            38218751 37619033 36849171 36129224 35449229 35059202
            34929140 35119057 35558935 35648730
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