[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251400
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-251500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0900 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...NRN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251400Z - 251500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DMGG WIND AND TORNADO RISK MAY ACCOMPANY A BOWING SEGMENT
MOVING ACROSS NERN MS INTO NWRN AL IN THE SHORT-TERM. IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS
A SLIGHTLY DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE N/E...BUT TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL LINE SEGMENT EVOLVING
INTO A BOW ACROSS MONROE COUNTY MS...WHILE ALSO DISPLAYING A NOTABLE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS CO-LOCATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. THE DOWNSHEAR AIR
MASS IS LESS UNSTABLE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR
/LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ AND EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THIS BOWING
SEGMENT CAN MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
QUITE STRONG AMIDST A 30-40 KT LLJ...WHICH COULD AID IN MAINTAINING
A THREAT INTO NWRN AL AND PERHAPS SRN MIDDLE TN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35448635 34998624 34318645 33818746 33808840 33848883
            34188892 34538870 35208702 35448635
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