[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 112004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112003
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-112230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN INDIANA...CNTRL/WRN KY...NRN PARTS
OF MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112003Z - 112230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF
A WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
RETURNS FROM NWRN TN TO WRN KY. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING A LOW-AMPLITUDE...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE GRAZING
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR E OF A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. LIMITED
INSOLATION THROUGH TRANSLUCENT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS RESIDUAL FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SUPPORTED SUFFICIENT DIABATIC SFC-LAYER
HEATING AMIDST LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS FOR 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE.
AND...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AROUND 40 KT OF
0-6-KM BULK SHEAR PER THE LVX VWP... FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ENSUE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   36478748 38028699 38648612 38448529 37238567 36288655
            36478748
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