[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091615
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-091845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KY INTO SOUTHERN WV/FAR WESTERN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091615Z - 091845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY/SPREAD EASTWARD
INITIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...INTO SOUTHERN WV/FAR WESTERN
VA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...MULTIPLE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SHOWN SOME INITIAL SIGNS OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY AS OF
16Z. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL
DIFFERENTIAL CLOUD COVER/HEATING...WHERE NEAR 80/LOWER 80S F SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY LEADING
TO NEGLIGIBLE INHIBITION WITH 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE AND DEEPENING CU
FIELD. THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES...WITH
40-50 KT BETWEEN 2-6 KM AGL EVIDENT FROM JKL/LVX/HPX WSR-88D VWP
DATA...WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY FAST/EASTWARD-MOVING LINE
SEGMENTS/ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURES WITH BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MATURE/INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/09/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36788665 37398644 38138144 37258151 36718262 36628598
            36788665
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