[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 090441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090440
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-090545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY...FAR SRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 396...

VALID 090440Z - 090545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 396 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF TORNADO MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A LOWER-END PROBABILITY /ABOUT 30
PERCENT/ OF WW ISSUANCE BEYOND 06Z EXPIRATION OF WW 396.

DISCUSSION...QLCS EXTENDING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SRN IL TO FAR WRN KY
IS PROGRESSING E AT ABOUT 40 KT. THIS FORWARD SPEED IS CONSISTENT
WITH MEASURED WIND GUSTS IN THE PAH AREA OF 35-40 KT AND MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED TREE DAMAGE. A BRIEF TORNADO IS
STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT PER AREA VWP
DATA...PARTICULARLY WHERE THE NRN PORTION OF THE QLCS INTERSECTS
WEAK CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM LEADING CONVECTION NEAR THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OHIO/WABASH RIVERS. HOWEVER...THIS RISK MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE QLCS OVERTAKES THE LEADING CONVECTION AND GIVEN ITS SWD
DISPLACEMENT FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE CYCLONE OVER CNTRL IL AND
ATTENDANT WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN PRESENCE OF
UPPER 70S SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER/MIDDLE 70S DEW POINTS...THE
RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST UNTIL CONVECTION
PROGRESSES INTO A COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER CNTRL/ERN KY.

..GRAMS.. 07/09/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37928793 38158717 38288650 38268621 38058602 37638589
            37308595 36998624 36638714 36558810 36608848 37018828
            37368821 37928793
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