[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261509
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261508
KYZ000-TNZ000-261715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TN AND SOUTHWEST KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261508Z - 261715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN-MIDDLE TN INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KY THIS MORNING.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE OF
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...AN WATCH IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THIS REGION.

DISCUSSION...AT 1435Z...MOSAIC AND MEMPHIS WSR-88D IMAGERY INDICATED
A SMALL BOWING LINE OF STORMS LOCATED IN EXTREME NORTHEAST AR AND
THE ADJACENT PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST MO BOOTHEEL...WITH THE LINE
MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35-40 KT.  SURFACE STREAMLINE
ANALYSES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A WARM FRONT ADVANCING TO THE NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN TN THIS MORNING...WITH THE BOWING LINE OF STORMS
APPEARING TO BE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  THESE OBSERVATIONS
COMBINED WITH 40-50-KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
PER THE MEMPHIS VWP DATA SUGGEST A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THIS BAND OF STORMS.  IN ADDITION...THE SAME VWP DATA INDICATED
STRONG SURFACE-1 KM SHEAR OF 35 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 365 M2/S2.
THIS SHEAR AND THE LEWP STRUCTURE IN THE BOWING LINE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BE SURFACE BASED...A TORNADO THREAT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST TN TO FAR
SOUTHWEST KY THIS MORNING.

FORECAST HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND
APPARENT LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING ARE A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE.  HOWEVER...RECENT RAP AND 00Z ECMWF/06Z
NAM SUGGEST A WEAK IMPULSE MAY BE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTRIBUTING TO SOME UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION.  THIS LOCALIZED FORCING MAY ALLOW THE ONGOING
STORMS TO PERSIST WITH SOME SEVERE THREAT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWEST
TN INTO SOUTHWEST KY.  HOWEVER...THIS LOCALIZED FORCING MAY SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWEST TN INTO
SOUTHWEST KY THIS MORNING.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 12/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36228948 37028810 37468631 37168602 36518612 36068641
            35718756 35468857 35448929 35448983 36228948
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