[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 250749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250748
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-251015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN AR...NRN LA...ERN TX...NRN MS...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250748Z - 251015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LARGE ZONE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
NWD ACROSS THE SABINE AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS BENEATH A SWLY FLOW
REGIME ALOFT. THE STORMS ARE GENERALLY ELONGATED ALONG A SW-NE
ORIENTED SFC TROUGH AND AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE
POSSIBLY TIED TO RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME.

SPORADIC MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CORES HAVE BEEN NOTED EARLY THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AR INTO NRN LA WHERE LEFT-MOVING CELLS
WERE OBSERVED. HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN
THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AMPLE INSTABILITY. LACK OF MUCH
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OR IMPETUS FOR ANY SFC LOWS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTS LOW/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT IF ANY. MEAN-LAYER FLOW
APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF
WIND SHOULD STORM MODE GROW MORE UPSCALE OVER OVER TIME. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING FOR ANY SUCH CHANGES IN STORM
CHARACTER.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 12/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32899460 34429276 36288904 36078819 35488786 34838829
            33998903 32639134 31659370 31569445 31899474 32899460
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