[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 230001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230000
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-230200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SERN AR...NERN LA...NRN/CNTRL
MS...FAR SRN MIDDLE TN...NRN/CNTRL AL...AND FAR NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 230000Z - 230200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND REMNANT MCS/MCV OVER CNTRL/ERN AR. A
SEPARATE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AL ALONG
WHAT APPEARS TO BE ARCING OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE
DAY. AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS HAVE
ALLOWED MLCAPE TO GENERALLY INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE...WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HINDERING GREATER
DESTABILIZATION. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT HAVE ALLOWED
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FORMED TO ACQUIRE SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
/REFERENCE RECENT GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORT FROM IN PANOLA COUNTY
MS/. WHILE VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG PER AREA
RADAR VWPS AND PARTIAL 00Z BMX SOUNDING...A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN/CNTRL MS. WITH THE
ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING UNDERWAY AND CURRENT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
NEED A WW.

..GLEASON/MEAD.. 08/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   32839172 33779174 34649118 34979014 35018855 35028731
            35378651 35458589 35428503 34528503 32958737 32078989
            32249117 32839172
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