[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 192028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192028
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-192230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE TN AND SOUTHEAST
INDIANA/SOUTHWEST OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 192028Z - 192230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE/EASTERN TN INTO SOUTHEAST
INDIANA/SOUTHWEST OH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KY/SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND
MIDDLE TN AT MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN KY SEMI-FOCUSED NEAR A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED
MODIFYING EARLY-DAY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE AMBIENT AIR MASS IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH 80S/70S F
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS RESPECTIVELY CONTRIBUTING TO UPWARDS OF
1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. OVERALL FORCING/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA
FROM NASHVILLE SHOWS AROUND 35 KT OF 0-6 KT SHEAR AMID A BROADER
CORRIDOR OF MODESTLY STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE LOWEST 3-6 KM. SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT THE PERSISTENCE OF MODESTLY
ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
OVERALL LIMITED SCOPE/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL PRECLUDE A
WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 08/19/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...

LAT...LON   35448750 37098633 38528611 39228507 39238346 38848292
            37128365 35748455 35128562 35088702 35448750
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