[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022305
TNZ000-KYZ000-030000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 022305Z - 030000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS /40-60 MPH/
MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO POCKETS
OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 2300Z SHOWS A WSW-ENE INTERCONNECTED
BAND OF STORMS FROM 55 MI SSW CKV...BIFURCATING THE GREATER
NASHVILLE AREA...AND IN AREAS FARTHER E NEAR THE CUMBERLAND GAP.
MOST OF THE STORMS ARE EXPELLING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW TO THE SSE AND
THIS IS TENDING TO UNDERCUT EXISTING CONVECTION AND PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE GUST FRONT.  THE
CURRENT ORIENTATION OF CONVECTION AND STORM INTENSITY APPEARS TO BE
PARTIALLY SYMPTOMATIC OF A FEW FACTORS...1) WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOB
20-25 KT AND 2) MEAN FLOW LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE GUST FRONT
ORIENTATION.  NONETHELESS...TEMPS IN THE 80S TO THE E AND S OF THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THIS EVENING AS PW AROUND
1.75 INCHES MAINTAINS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG WET MICROBURSTS.  THE
ANAFRONTAL CHARACTER OF THE OUTFLOW AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD
LEAD TO STORMS WEAKENING BELOW LOCALLY SEVERE LIMITS TOWARDS 03/01Z.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 09/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON   35858810 36168710 36138573 36618406 36518340 35968372
            35638477 35488670 35578757 35858810



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