[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue Sep 2 15:50:56 CDT 2014

ACUS11 KWNS 022050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022049
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-022145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN KY...MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022049Z - 022145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF
CNTRL/ERN KY AND MIDDLE TN...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO ERN PORTIONS OF
KY/TN AND FAR SWRN VA. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ORIENTED FROM NRN MIDDLE TN ENEWD ACROSS ERN
KY INTO SRN WV. MORE RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING OVER NWRN TN
INVOF AN AGITATED CU FIELD. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN
FRINGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND AS A RESULT...DEEP-LAYER
WINDS ARE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN AREAS TO THE N. HOWEVER...THE
AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST /E.G. PW VALUES OF APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ AND
WEAKLY CAPPED...AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A SEMI-CONTINUOUS
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
AT LEAST LOCALIZED SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR WIND POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/HART.. 09/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON   37238172 36248310 35648476 35448659 35488807 35778843
            36138831 36478711 37128568 37648506 38018393 38008352
            37858258 37238172

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