[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 132228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132227
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-132330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1879
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0527 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN / NERN MS / NWRN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 537...540...

VALID 132227Z - 132330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 537...540...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE
NEXT 30-60 MINUTES BEFORE THE SQUALL LINE OVERTAKES THE DISCRETE AND
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE.

DISCUSSION...22Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MARITIME
WARM FRONT DRAPED SSE TO NNW FROM NERN AL THROUGH MIDDLE TN.  A
SEVERE WIND-PRODUCING QLCS IS LOCATED FROM THE LOWER TN RIVER VALLEY
NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER INTO FAR NERN MS.  IN BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS 1 TO 1.5 MB PER HOUR HAVE BEEN
NOTED WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NWRN AL INTO MIDDLE
TN.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONE ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LINE.  A CLUSTER OF NWD-MOVING STORMS MOVING FROM AL
INTO SRN MIDDLE TN WILL LIKELY PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO THE AIR MASS
QUALITY VIA CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING INFLUENCES.
NONETHELESS...SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE FROM THE AL/MS BORDER
INTO MIDDLE TN WILL POSE A TORNADO RISK...IN ADDITION TO
STRAIGHT-LINE DMGG WINDS WITH THE SQUALL LINE.

..SMITH.. 10/13/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33848874 36588791 36368707 33608794 33848874



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