[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071759
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-072000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1823
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MS...NRN AL...SRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071759Z - 072000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SUBTLE WARM ADVECTION OVER A RESIDUAL CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED COOL DOME IS SUSTAINING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TN. DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST MIDDLE
60S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION. AS
EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS EXTEND TOWARD THE SFC IN RESPONSE TO
SFC-LAYER HEATING AND MLCAPE VALUES REACH AROUND 500-1000
J/KG...STORMS COULD INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA. AND...WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ON THE S SIDE OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND OF FAST MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW COVERING
PORTIONS OF THE N-CNTRL/NERN STATES...A FEW SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS/HAIL
MAY OCCUR...AND AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...PLAN VIEW DEPICTIONS OF VWP DATA AND SFC OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AND...WITH THE
ABSENCE OF STRONGER BUOYANCY...A GREATER SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT
EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

..COHEN/DARROW.. 10/07/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   34328842 34758957 35208890 35248608 34418594 34328842



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