[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 062337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062336
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-070100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 062336Z - 070100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN
PROBABLE THROUGH 02-03Z. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION OF FUTURE
SEVERE EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE FROM NERN
MS THROUGH NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN WITHIN WHAT APPEARS TO BE SRN EXTENT
OF ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. MODEST /500-1000 J/KG/ MLCAPE
AND 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MID-LEVEL
UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE
OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS STORM SPLITS
REMAIN POSSIBLE...AND THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PRIMARILY 1-1.5 INCH HAIL. THIS EVENT APPEARS AT OR JUST PAST PEAK
INTENSITY. GIVEN ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...TENDENCY FOR DEEPER
ASCENT TO SHIFT EAST OF AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AS WELL AS THE
EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF FUTURE HAIL EVENTS...A WW DOES
NOT APPEAR JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME. AN OVERALL GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD BEGIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/06/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35108853 36378660 36498518 35568473 34528564 34258736
            34018899 35108853



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