[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061949
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-062045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1815
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...IL...IN...KY...TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061949Z - 062045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN TN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL APPEAR TO
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS AND WEAKLY ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHERN IL TO WEST-CENTRAL KY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AMIDST GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF AN
EXPANSIVE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. COLD AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE
WARMING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WHILE MARGINAL
BUT SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WAS SUPPORTING NARROW
CORRIDORS WHERE MLCAPE HAS CLIMBED TO AROUND 300-600 J/KG. STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDING STORM INITIATION AND PERHAPS STORM
PERSISTENCE APPEARS TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN TWO GENERAL
AREAS...1) NEAR/ALONG THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN IL
AND IND...AND WITHIN A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST KY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KY AND WESTERN TN.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ACROSS THESE AREAS WERE IN THE RANGE OF
35-40KT...PRIMARILY A RESULT OF STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE ORGANIZED STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL
NEAR AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WINDS PERHAPS APPROACHING 50KT...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINLY REGARDING LONGER-LIVED WIDESPREAD
SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING HOURS GIVEN MOSTLY
DIABATIC/DIURNAL INFLUENCE DRIVING THE CURRENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION.
IF A CONTINUED INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LASTS BEYOND THE
NEXT HOUR...A WATCH IS POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KY
SOUTHWEST INTO TN.

..CARBIN/HART.. 10/06/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...
LSX...

LAT...LON   39138752 39298634 39168508 38358362 37328419 35408703
            34909008 37018931 38268925 39138752


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