[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 030711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030711
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-030915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE TN...S CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 030711Z - 030915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE OVERSPREADING THE REGION MAY CONTINUE TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS A
TORNADO.  HOWEVER...WITH SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE
LINE APPEARING UNLIKELY...AND WEAKENING TRENDS EXPECTED BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER 09-11Z...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST VIGOROUS LINGERING SEGMENT OF THE ONGOING
EASTWARD ADVANCING SQUALL LINE IS IN THE PROCESS OF PROGRESSING
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 521...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY/MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.  THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO CORRESPOND WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
NOW BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU...TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AIDED BY INFLOW OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR /WITH CAPE PROBABLY ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J PER KG/ STORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING
STRENGTH...AND THIS COULD PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS AND
EAST OF THE BOWLING GREEN KY...NASHVILLE TN AND HUNTSVILLE AL AREAS.
 HOWEVER...BEYOND THE 09-11Z TIME FRAME...IT APPEARS THE SUPPORTING
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE...AND THE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION THE
SQUALL LINE WILL INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY.  SO SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY.  HOWEVER...UNTIL ACTIVITY
WEAKENS...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH THE 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850
JET CORE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY MAY CONTINUE
TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

..KERR/THOMPSON.. 10/03/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35888678 36738629 37188583 37418506 37278435 36428460
            33948613 33528745 33748768 34278735 35018706 35888678



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