[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 222347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222347
TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ILZ000-230115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0666
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL/KY TO
NORTHERN/EASTERN TN AND EXTREME WESTERN VA/NORTH GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176...

VALID 222347Z - 230115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY
ACROSS FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST TN WITHIN SEVERE TSTM WATCH 176...WHICH
CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z.

DISCUSSION...CLOSELY SPACED/SEMI-DISCRETE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST TN AS OF
2340Z. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE
CONTINUES TO FEED THE STORMS FROM THE WEST...WHILE A RIBBON OF
MODERATELY-STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF KY AND EASTERN/FAR NORTHERN TN. THE AFOREMENTIONED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RELATIVELY ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY SPREAD TOWARD THE TN/VA BORDER
VICINITY...ALTHOUGH NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.

MEANWHILE...THE PROSPECTS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE APPEARS LIMITED
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN TN/WESTERN KY/FAR SOUTHEAST MO IN
VICINITY OF A OUTFLOW AND/OR THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE
AIR MASS REMAINS WARM/MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH SOME TOWERING CU
HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRED EARLIER NORTHWEST OF THE HOPKINSVILLE KY
VICINITY...MEANINGFUL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY
IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE AND PROBABLE WEAK
SUBSIDENCE/MID-LEVEL CAPPING.

..GUYER.. 05/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36988931 37078788 36688587 36268391 36148297 35278370
            34798462 36008617 36438816 36988931


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