[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101744
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-101945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...KY...SWRN OH...FAR WRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101744Z - 101945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH SOME
INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED. SOME STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR STORMS
CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL SVR
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT WV IMAGERY PLACES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER IL
WITH INCREASED LIFT DOWNSTREAM LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING
TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN OH VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS A MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM S-CNTRL IL NEWD INTO NW
PA.

MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SVR
COVERAGE WITH A PRIMARILY MUTLICELL MODE FAVORED. A FEW STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CELL
MERGERS...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED
FOR A WW. HOWEVER...TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR
INCREASED STORM ORGANIZATION WHICH MAY END UP INCREASING THE NEED
FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/10/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...
MEG...

LAT...LON   38548789 39188672 39828305 39308199 38218180 37388261
            36948396 36678649 36398902 38548789



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