[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141537
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141537
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-141630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN OH/WRN WV/CENTRAL AND ERN KY/NRN
MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141537Z - 141630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH WW ISSUANCE LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FROM ERN TN NWD INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY...E OF A
BAND OF THICKER CLOUDS COVERING THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS
ATTM.  IN THIS RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AREA...DIURNAL HEATING IS
UNDERWAY...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW RISING THROUGH THE 70S AREA-WIDE.
THIS HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS IS YIELDING
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE NOW IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG.

ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODEL-FORECAST INCREASE IN LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA.  AS THE ENVIRONMENT THUS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE RISK...EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE
IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY -- WITH A MIX OF POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND ROTATING CELLS.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY...ALONG WITH SOME RISK FOR TORNADOES AS THE FLOW FIELD
STRENGTHENS.  LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH NWD
EXTENT ACROSS KY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WHERE GREATER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INDICATED.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36778378 36138529 36708622 37768558 39738379 41098255
            41138129 40608054 38518147 36778378



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