[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041720
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-041915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...WRN AND CNTRL
KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041720Z - 041915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONE OR MORE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.  SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING OF THE MORE
SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  THIS SEEMS MOST
LIKELY CLOSER TO THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME...BUT COULD OCCUR EARLIER.

DISCUSSION...TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY
REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR.  IN THE WAKE OF A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED OR ENHANCED PERTURBATIONS...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
STILL SUGGESTS INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS AHEAD OF
A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY...IS CONSIDERABLE.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALREADY
APPEARS EVIDENT ALONG THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT.

INTO AND THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...FURTHER INSOLATION...
BENEATH A CONTINUING INFLUX OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR
FROM THE PLAINS...LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  BENEATH
40-50 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ERODING WITH AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE TO DISCRETE
SUPERCELL STORMS INITIALLY.  UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH TO ONE OR
MORE ORGANIZED AND CONSOLIDATING STORM CLUSTERS PROBABLY WILL BE
FAIRLY RAPID...HOWEVER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/04/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38538996 39028792 38828694 38618553 38448471 38258416
            37178510 36628714 36778880 38029151 38538996


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