[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 232215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232214
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-240015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...CNTRL KY THROUGH MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232214Z - 240015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL POSE A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUST NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN AN
OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TOWARD MID-EVENING. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COUPLE OF STORM CLUSTERS PERSIST
OVER CNTRL IND AS WELL AS MIDDLE TN MOVING SWD AT 30-35 KT. THE
STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK /15-25 KT/ NWLY DEEP LAYER WINDS
WHICH /IN ADDITION TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GUST FRONT/ WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE IS
MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE...AND
STORMS WILL TRACK SWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH SRN
IND...CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN NEXT FEW HOURS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE WEAK...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW INSTANCES OF WET
DOWNBURSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP SWD. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND TOWARD MID-EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 08/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   39898600 38308472 37098458 36108503 35258594 35068703
            35398820 37538671 38838704 39898600



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