[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202232
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-MSZ000-210030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY...MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN AL...NRN
GA...FAR SWRN NC...FAR WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468...

VALID 202232Z - 210030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW
468. ISOLATED SVR IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH ACROSS WRN MID
TN...FAR NRN AL/GA...AND FAR ERN KY/WRN VA. SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ISOLATED WITH ANY ADDITIONAL WATCHES ACROSS THE REGION
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE AIRMASS ACROSS
MIDDLE TN HAS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING. HOWEVER...WRN MIDDLE TN...NRN AL...AND NRN GA ARE JUST
NOW BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE CONVECTION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J PER KG. AS A
RESULT...SOME SVR IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT THE LACK
OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES /0-6 BULK
SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KT PER HTX VAD/ SHOULD KEEP THE SVR THREAT
ISOLATED.

BETTER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS KY /0-6 BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT PER JKL
VAD/ AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME HINTS OF COLD POOL
AMALGAMATION. HOWEVER IN THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT /ACROSS MID TN
EWD INTO FAR WRN NC AND FAR WRN VA/...PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND/OR
CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. SOME
ISOLATED SVR IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE WATCH ACROSS FAR ERN KY AND FAR
WRN VA BUT THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES ACROSS THIS REGION ARE UNLIKELY BUT TRENDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED.

..MOSIER.. 08/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...
HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34938837 36468840 37508711 38208563 38198281 36988174
            34298318 34938837


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