[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071932
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-072030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT MON APR 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND WRN KY INTO SRN OHIO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071932Z - 072030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
E-NE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND WRN KY INTO SRN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS FAST
MOVING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS HAS ALLOWED LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS
CNTRL KY SWD INTO MIDDLE TN. DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE FROM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS A
SFC LOW NEAR LOUISVILLE TRACKS NEWD TOWARD SW OHIO. DOWNSTREAM
TEMPERATURES HAVE MODESTLY WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE MID 50S...RESULTING IN ADEQUATE
DESTABILIZATION FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS /MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J PER
KG/. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LEAD TO FAST STORM MOTION...AND
COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 7-7.5 DEG C PER KM/
POSSIBLY SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL OR BOWING STRUCTURES. BACKED LOW
LEVEL FLOW AS INDICATED BY REGIONAL WSR88-D VAD WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF A TORNADO WITH ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN
STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER FLOW AND AFOREMENTIONED FAST STORM MOTION.
LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE AND WHILE A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR MORE ROBUST/ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 04/07/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36388537 36588582 36988597 37568602 38298545 38838484
            39578387 39858320 39868242 39778152 39608116 39248100
            38858112 37788226 36278414 36388537


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather