[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071256
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-071430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W KY AND NW/MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071256Z - 071430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL THIS
MORNING...BUT WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...STRONG DCVA PRECEDING A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHING
THE LOWER OH VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAY CONTINUE TO
ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES --
AROUND 7 C/KM BETWEEN H7 AND H5 PER 12Z BNA RAOB -- WILL BE
REINFORCED BY MID-LEVEL ADIABATIC COOLING RELATED TO DCVA/ASCENT.
AND...WITH A 40-45-KT LLJ PER OHX VWP SUPPORTING AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...STATIC STABILITY WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE STORMS FROM BECOMING
SFC-BASED. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SPORADIC
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL GIVEN STRONG DEEP SHEAR AND ELEVATED BUOYANCY.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/07/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36298876 37348848 37888750 37768609 36888618 35868694
            35848839 36298876



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