[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 220141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220140
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-220315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...CNTRL KY..WCNTRL TN...NRN MS AND NW AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 583...585...

VALID 220140Z - 220315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 583...585...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREAT ACROSS WW 583 AND WW
585 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING WITH A
SQUALL-LINE MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL KY...MIDDLE TN AND NW AL. WW
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HALF HOUR ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED MULTI-SEGMENTED SQUALL-LINE CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SRN IND SSWWD ACROSS WRN KY INTO WRN TN AND NRN MS. ON
THE NRN EDGE OF THE LINE...AN INTENSE BOW ECHO WILL MOVE INTO THE
LOUISVILLE AND CINCINNATI AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THE BOW ECHO IS LOCATED ON THE NOSE
OF AN 80-90 KT JET NEAR 700 MB. THIS IS CREATING VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE WSR-88D VWP AT
LOUISVILLE KY WHICH SHOWS 70 TO 80 KT OF FLOW ABOUT 1 KM OFF THE
SFC. THIS ALONG WITH THE NEWD MOVEMENT AT 50 TO 55 KT SUGGESTS THAT
THE SQUALL-LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A FEW
TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOW.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE SQUALL-LINE HAS SHOWN INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS WCNTRL TN AND NRN MS. THIS PART OF THE
SQUALL-LINE IS LOCATED NEAR A LOW-LEVEL JET MAX WITH WIND SPEEDS OF
80 TO 90 KT. THIS ALONG WITH MLCAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS
NW AL AND MIDDLE TN SHOULD ENABLE THE LINE TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A
TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING. A STRONG TORNADO MAY
OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS.
ALSO...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER
ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES INTO MIDDLE TN
AND NRN AL LATE THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 12/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...BMX...HUN...PAH...
MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   38678621 37418670 36638763 35848849 33748930 33468837
            33688758 35018681 36248543 37378460 38378426 39008488
            38678621


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