[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091701
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-091830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TN/FAR NORTH AL/FAR NORTH GA TO WESTERN
CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091701Z - 091830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN TN AND FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF AL/GA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS A DEEPENING CUMULUS
FIELD INCLUDING SOME INCIPIENT TSTMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
GENERALLY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND IN VICINITY
OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS WSW-ENE FROM ALONG THE AL/GA/TN
BORDER VICINITY INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
VERTICAL SHEAR ARE WEAK PER 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND MORE
CONTEMPORARY WSR-88D VWP DATA. HOWEVER...A MOIST AIRMASS /AROUND 70F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/MODERATE SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION...IN ADDITION TO AMPLE
DRY AIR ALOFT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGEST THAT
DOWNBURSTS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/WEISS.. 07/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...HUN...

LAT...LON   36278226 36418108 35468081 34638137 34518256 34468508
            35038619 36278226


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