[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131701
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-131830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...SERN MO...SWRN KY...WRN TN AND NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131701Z - 131830Z

STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
INITIALLY ACROSS NERN AR...SERN MO INTO WRN TN. PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WW WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED SOON.

ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LOCATED
FROM SERN MO SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN AR. LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES 1500 J/KG MLCAPE...AND CAP SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER
WITH CONTINUED DIABATIC WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER AND INFLUENCE OF
DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH. SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOON ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE SMALL...BUT
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH TIME SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS IN ADDITION TO DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 05/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34879180 36769085 37408984 36808856 34079059 33789220
            34879180


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