[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131622
TNZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-131815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL...NWRN GA...ERN TN...AND SERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131622Z - 131815Z

STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SERN KY SSWWD THROUGH ERN TN AND
NERN AL IS MOVING EAST 25-30 KT. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG...BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK. BOTH
OBSERVED AND PFC DATA INDICATE LITTLE CAP REMAINING AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80 F...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT ADVANCES EWD NEXT FEW
HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MULTICELL
CONVECTION. THE MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES COULD ULTIMATELY
SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST THREAT...BUT THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.

..DIAL.. 05/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34718561 36218447 37208393 37258298 36418245 34918399
            33998518 33868619 34718561



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