[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 152248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152247
NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-152345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 152247Z - 152345Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN KY EWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS.

A COMPLEX SFC PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE PRIMARY
FEATURE BEING A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE STATE OF KY. THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MORE STABLE OVER NRN TN AND PARTS OF S CNTRL
KY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...WHILE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
SLOWLY PUSHING N/NWWD FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SMOKEY MTNS.
DESPITE ERRATIC SFC WIND FIELDS...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROTATING STORMS /WITH ONE WELL-DEFINED SUPERCELL
ALREADY PRESENT ON RECENT RADAR IMAGERY OVER LEE COUNTY KY AS OF
2245 UTC/. CELL SPLITS WILL LIKELY OCCUR GIVEN A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. THE THREAT FOR THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG AND S OF THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE...AND
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO FAR SW VA/SE
KY.

TRAINING OF ECHOS IS ALSO LIKELY AS WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND MAY EVENTUALLY
CONGEAL INTO A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING RATES UP TO 1-2
INCHES PER HR. ISOLATED REPORTS OF HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

..ROGERS.. 05/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...

LAT...LON   36358299 36438432 36668457 36688566 37058610 37448611
            37778573 37928529 37878432 37908368 37208234 36898170
            36538103 36158086 36268170 36358299



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